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Monitoring Implementation of Lisbon Strategy and NRP in the Time Dimension
Where is Slovenia? (Kje je Slovenija?) PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 09 August 2011

Interview of Professor Pavle Sicherl in the leading Slovenian newspaper DELO, August 8, 2011

In the interview the time distance innovation and applications in economics and statistics were explained. The main conclusions on the position of Slovenia and Europe are from the article 'Kje je Slovenija?' in the proceedings of the symposium at the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts at the 10th anniverasry of death of Professor Aleksander Bajt.

 
Pavle Sicherl: Contribution to the Public Consultation on the future EU 2020 Strategy PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 02 February 2010

What happened with the implementation of the Lisbon targets? Lessons to be learned about transparency and co-operation

The preparation and implementation of the new EU 2020 Strategy requires realistic evaluation of the initial position including past performance, better transparency and more effective co-ordination at the EU and national levels. 


Table 1. Monitoring implementation of the EU Lisbon targets in two dimension: 
time distance and percentage deviation

By 2008 the actual developments were lagging behind the respective lines to the Lisbon targets by 2.7 years for dynamics of GDP, for 3.1 years for total employment rate and for more than 7 years for the share of R&D in GDP (delay of seven years in an eight year period!). This is a much more transparent way of monitoring the implementation for governments and civil society that can help to bring about continuous policy adjustments than the statistical format of presentation in the Commission reports. The analysis of implementation is much more interesting also in political terms when it is made against the national targets.

Good governance uses the feedback from the implementation as an indispensable phase of the policy process to adjust the future actions. Four lessons are discussed in the contribution: 
1. One has to start from a realistic evaluation of the initial position and of past performance.
2. For efficient implementation much better co-ordination is needed.
3. Much greater transparency is needed both in setting up the strategy and in its continuous monitoring. 
4 A transparent innovative method for monitoring implementation at all levels is available but not utilised

The benefits of the new S-time-distance view in comparisons, competitiveness issues, benchmarking, target setting and monitoring for economic, employment, social, R&D and environment indicators at the world, EU, country, regional, city, sector, socio-economic groups, company, project, household and individual levels could be immediately applied to many indicators  from a wide variety of substantive fields using existing data and indicator systems from international, national, regional, business and local sources.

“But I want to go further. We need to match this huge investment in ex ante assessment with an equivalent effort in ex post evaluation – to ensure that our proposals really do deliver what they promise and to enable us to revise and correct them where they fail to work as expected. All of these initiatives are designed to focus EU action on the essentials, removing bureaucratic processes and unnecessary centralisation“ (Barroso, 2009, p. 29). 

These political guidelines should be applied right now for a thorough ex post analysis of implementation at EU and country levels to benefit from the lessons learned from the ongoing Lisbon Strategy and not just proclaimed and  reserved for some undefined distant future. The time distance methodology can make a modest contribution in the consultation process by presenting the situation in transparent terms with clear interpretability both to decision makers and to the general public, which can as well facilitate understanding, commitment and broader participation in the preparation of the EU 2020 Strategy. 


 
Free Web tool for time distance monitoring updated with easier preparation of input files PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 30 September 2009
SICENTER with the free Web tool enables a variety of interested users such as international and national organizations, NGOs, experts, students and media to monitor implementation of targets in the time dimension from the Lisbon and NRP targets in the case of EU and for MDGs or other planned, budget, or aid disbursement targets at world, regional, national, sub-national or business levels. 
 
A new template to facilitate the user with the preparation of the input file for our free web monitoring tool is provided below. This template enables you to paste the corresponding actual data of your choice in the block format (simple copy paste). It also calculates linear or exponential lines to targets according to your assumptions and combines it with actual data. This greatly reduces the amount of time needed to prepare the input file from a structured database.   

Template: Web_tool_preparation_1.0.xlt

Data entered into the template should be saved as ‘Microsoft Excel Workbook 97-2003 version’ (.xls), and not as Template (.xlt). Notwithstanding that the template when opened in Excel 2007 shows "Read Only" users of Excel 2007 version can enter the data into the template and save it under a new name as Excel 97-2003 version. Such saved input file can then be imported into the web monitoring tool using the 'browse' button in the tool. 


 
Novel monitoring method looks at delays for Lisbon targets PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 29 September 2008

The Time Distance Perspective to the Commission's Report

This paper presents the application of the novel broader two-dimensional monitoring system to analyse the implementation of targets for selected structural and sustainable development indicators for the EU. It can be used across many indicators as well as across and within countries in many fields.

S-time-distance measure as the new added dimension deals with lead or lag in time of the actual attainment in a given year against the line to target (it is like tracking in time the actual arrivals in comparison with the train timetable). The degree of implementation for the two EU targets specified in the Commission Report showed that the total employment rate for EU27 was in 2007 about 2.8 years behind the line to target; for the share of the R&D expenditures in GDP S-time-distance indicates that the time delay was more than 6 years in a 6 year period, the value in 2006 was even lower than the starting value in 2000.  

For the later the total disappointment holds even for the reduced targets in the National Reform Programmes. For 7 countries with nearly 40 percent of the EU population the value in 2006 was lower than in 2000. Results by countries are presented. This is not a good indication for the long-term position of EU in the world.

The analysis for 12 selected structural and sustainable development indicators for EU15 across 7 SD themes shows that the four indicators with the greatest delays in time are related to long-term issues: sustainable transport (theme 7), share of R&D in GDP (theme 1), total greenhouse emissions and share of electricity from renewable resources (theme 6 climate change and energy). Again, their values were worse at the end of the period than in the starting year. This type of analysis can be repeated in the EU case for all 27 countries across a greater selected number of available indicators with established targets.  

These results present the situation in transparent terms with clear interpretability also to general public, which can as well facilitate understanding of the situation, need for stronger commitment and broader participation in the Lisbon process. SICENTER prepared a FREE WEB MONITORING TOOL to empower a broad range of stakeholders (such as international and national organizations, NGOs, experts, managers, educators, students and media) in Europe and in the world with an excellent presentation and communication tool that is easily understood and can support decision-making as well as influence public opinion across many fields of concern.

 
Seminar on S-TIME-DISTANCE at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 27 April 2008
Pavle Sicherl presented S-Time-Distance – A Novel Generic Statistical Measure Providing New Insights from Existing Data at the seminar of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle on April 15, 2008.

 
 
 
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