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Pavle Sicherl at OECD conference Data Designed for Decisions |
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Thursday, 18 June 2009 |
Time distance offers a novel perception of world disparities and of the implementation of the Millennium Development GoalsThis is the presentation of Pavle Sicherl at the joint OECD and Institute for International Design conference, June 18-20, Paris.
In the ‘Beyond GDP’ chain Statistics-Knowledge-Policy we need new concepts and
indicators, but also new understandable statistical measures facilitating very diverse
groups of stakeholders to build their perceptions of the situation.
S-time-distance is such a novel statistical measure providing new insights to many
problems. Expressed in time units it is readily understood by policy makers,
managers, media and general public, thus an excellent presentation and
communication tool for policy analysis and debate.
S-time-distance measures the distance between the points in time (lead or lag in
time) when the two compared countries reach the same level of the indicator X. In
measuring the overall “position” and “progress” among and within countries the new
dimension succeeds in finding new stories about development gaps from existing
data. It complements prevailing static measures by telling new more complex stories
in simple terms.
The new story of this added dimension of the disparity in the world is found by
showing how many years earlier were the present values for 160-200 countries
attained in Sweden as a long-term benchmark. For GDP per capita one half of the
countries (80 countries) were lagging Sweden by more than 70 years (36 countries
even for more than 160 years). Yet for internet users per 100 inhabitants the
corresponding value was 10 years, even though the static disparities were high. The
perceptions of the degree of disparity may be very different in static terms and in time
distance pointing to broader conclusions and semantics important for policy
considerations.
Cross-fertilization: Gaptimer meets Gapminder. Time gap measure animation
example is provided in the Gapminder Community graph.
Application to monitoring implementation of targets with time distance is shown
for Millennium Development Goals. Free web monitoring tool is available for users at
the world, country, regional and local levels.
The presentation is available at Sicherl presentation DD4D ver 2.ppt
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EUROCHAMBRES Time-Distance Study 2009 |
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Monday, 08 June 2009 |
The crisis further increases time delays behind the Lisbon targets – the USA is still ahead and China and India are cutting time distance dramatically Time-Distance Study 2009 was published by EUROCHAMBRES as their Position Paper: What Foundations does Europe Need to ensure its Global Competitiveness?
The time distance analysis looks at time gaps for four indicators among EU27 and USA as well as BRIC countries. The dynamics in the new century led to two different conclusions about the convergence: the lag behind the USA stayed substantial while ‘what if’ scenarios show that China and India could continue to decrease their time lag behind EU27 dramatically.
The study also discusses the monitoring of the implementation of the Lisbon targets, the recommendations for further measures and time distance methodology.
Full text: Time Distance Study 2009.pdf
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Foresight and time distance methodology |
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Saturday, 04 April 2009 |
A New Perspective Related to TimeThe time distance approach can contribute a broader way of thinking and changed semantics into the present state-of-the-art of comparative analysis. At the 10th Bled Forum on Europe there was a parallel workshop ‘Foresight Training Workshop for Participants from South East Europe’. Presentation by Pavle Sicherl discussed the potential benefits of time distance method that include also benchmarking evaluation of the starting situation, a presentation and communication tool to describe, compare and visualise findings of scenarios in a new dimension and continuous monitoring for targeted actions. The presentation Sicherl Foresight Training seminar Bled.ppt is available online.
More details about elements to be used in foresight are available in an older background paper for the US-EU Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, 13-14 May, 2004. Pavle Sicherl presented the poster on the time distance method in foresight analysis with background paper.
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